Tuesday 28 January 2014

Wicked Research

How often does one read a snippet in the media saying something like -
"New research has shown that if you do something, it will cure something else"

If one can be bothered to look up the paper behind the headline, it is most often  one small study, done under, not entirely satisfactory scientific research standards.
But even if it has been an excellent, class A, bit of research - the big question should be -
IF IT WAS DONE AGAIN  - WOULD THE RESULT BE THE SAME?

When the drug company Amgen tried to replicate 53 key studies of cancer, they got the same results IN JUST SIX CASES.

We find it hard to believe that many experiments get significant results - just BY CHANCE
Of course the best way to check for this is  - to repeat the experiment - preferably before publishing that result.

All too often scientists get over-excited and publish chance results, or "false positives", like gamblers or fund managers who tell you about winners they backed.
The media pick then them up - as they make a story that will sell papers.

Sadly the scientists often do not bother to replicate the study.
or
If they do and get a negative results -
they don't bother to publish it - or are not allowed to publish it.
And  -even if they do -
the media do not pick it up  - as it will not sell papers!








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